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imaginelehrerOn vacation I read a number of books (love my Kindle) including Why Nations Fail by Daron Acenoglu and James Robinson and Imagine by Jonah Lehrer. While clearly quite different, one on what has allowed some nations to grow and endure while others fail and the other one about unlocking the creative processes of the brain; I took away lessons for my work from both.

“How Nations Fail” isn’t a business book. It is more of a history book than anything, but I saw parallels with what we are facing. The book details a long string of historical examples of nations that either failed outright or that saw some success but then reversed course. The central core is that nations that succeed over time always feature the same factors which feature truly inclusive systems. Meaning, everyone has a chance to succeed on an equal footing. 

mra market research conference 2012Spent a good bit of last week at the MRA conference in San Diego. The weather was overcast and cloudy for the first couple days, a perfect metaphor for the general mood of the industry and uncertain outlook the future holds for us. But as always, I saw a lot to be optimistic about. In particular the first and second to last presentation I watched featured experience researchers who are enthusiastically embracing the opportunities that exist today.

Hal Bloom of Sage Software talked about their satisfaction research using a standard likelihood to recommend approach. They attempt to survey every customer every year and succeed in getting 20% of them to respond. This means tens of thousands of surveys with a multiple of that in terms of open ended responses. Sage makes extensive use of text recognition software to determine sentiment and help sort out who their most vocal promoters and detractors are. A great use of new technology, but what struck me even more was what they do next.

low response rateA recent discussionon Linkedin pondered whether MR is having its own global warming crisis in the form of an ever dwindling respondent pool. As always, this brought on arguments that response rates need to be improved, quality enforced and of course talk about how much we have slipped as an industry since the good old days. Some blame clients for this (they demand speed and lower cost without concern for quality!) and some blame researchers for not holding clients’ feet to the fire.   It struck me that this is yet another case of researchers not viewing things from a client perspective.

market research conference 2012Well, another conference is over, perhaps our best ever. A great roster of speakers, a room full of engaged attendees and a great location was a terrific formula for a memorable conference. Some highlights from the various sessions:

Lenny Murphy, Editor-in-Chief of the Greenbook blog opened with a wide sweep discussing the waves of changes rocking the market research world. Pulling from the GRIT survey, his discussion with emerging and established players, as well as his itinerant investigation, he was able to convincingly make the case that change in the MR industry is happening. Now. He talked about emerging technologies such as mobile, social media and text analytics and how academic expertise was a key to unlocking a future of new ideas. It was a perfect set-up for the group of academic presentations that were to follow.

Discrete Choice in a Police Lineup

Posted by on in New Research Methods

police lineup discrete choiceThe Economist reviewed a study by Dr. Neil Brewer about effective police lineups which I think had implications for Market Research. Like researchers, police typically like to encourage witnesses to take their time to ensure they are making the correct choice. This makes logical sense, more time, means more thinking which naturally should lead to better results. Sadly, Dr. Brewer found otherwise.

He had volunteers view short films which detailed mundane scenes of everyday life and a crime (shoplifting, car theft, etc). Later (some minutes later, some a week), they were asked to identify the criminal from a group of 12 pictures of “suspects”. Half were given 3 seconds to evaluate each picture and asked how confident they were of their choice. The other half were given as much time as they wanted. The results showed that the group that had the limited time was correct 67% of the time. The group with more time was only correct 49% of the time.  

movieticket_3dglasses3D is all the rage in Hollywood and is coming to a TV set near you if it isn't there already. 3D@Home Consortium lists no fewer than 20 movies planned for theatrical release in 2012 that will be offered up in 3D. These include Men in Black 3, Star Trek 2 and The Ring 3D.

But is Hollywood's push toward 3D the result of consumer demand? Holly McKay reporting for FoxNews.com says that less than 50% of the box office earnings for Kung Fu Panda 2, Pirates of the Caribbean, Green Lantern and Cars 2 in 2011 were from 3D showings.

But how does 3D fit in as a draw relative to the other decisions a potential movie-goer makes? Does 3D motivate an American adult to select a movie to see on a given day?

Apparently not.

webcamAs researchers it is critical that we ensure our data accurately reflect the thinking of the market....in other words, getting to the truth. This is complicated by several factors including limitations of a questionnaire, respondent's lack of attention and the fact that people don't always know what they really want or need. While careful design and methodology can help to minimize these issues (at TRC we believe in using choice questions and shorter surveys) and the use of other data (which can establish the facts), it is impossible to eliminate them.

Technology such as eye tracking, bio metrics and facial recognition software can be applied to neuroscience to help us understand more about what respondents are thinking. The trouble is they are often expensive (sometimes getting the whole truth isn't worth the price) and slow down the research process (sometimes a faster less complete answer is better than a slow one). The limited data available also make it difficult to draw good conclusions. An outstanding presentation at the ARF's 75th Annual Conference showed this quite well.

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