The current Covid-19 crisis has gotten me thinking about all of the big challenges that we have faced at TRC. These include:
• A flood that destroyed our Headquarters
• A fire that destroyed our biggest call center
• Three recessions of varying depths
• Transformational industry changes such as the move from phone to web
We’ve persevered for over 30 years through these and other challenges. I thought it might be helpful to share some of what I learned as a result. Hopefully it will help others navigate the very challenging current business environment.
Of course if you don’t have a plan you’ll more or less have to make it up as you go along. But let this be the last crisis that you haven’t planned for. With each challenge our plans have gotten better. You have to think through even unlikely scenarios. For example, you might have had a plan for people to work from home but did you think through whether your systems can handle that kind of load or whether it can be sustained over a long period of time?
My business’ most important asset is our staff. I’m lucky to work with really talented and smart people. Thing is, they are smart enough to recognize trouble and talented enough to have other options on where to work. Providing them with honest communication on where things stand and what you are going to do is critical. Don’t make promises you can’t keep. Your credibility will carry you far. I’m proud to say that more than half my staff has been with us for 20+ years. That doesn’t happen if you lose credibility....
I’ve been really impressed with the way our company and our clients have reacted to this crisis. First and foremost, we’re taking precautions to slow the spread. We, as well as our clients, moved quickly on things like suspending travel, replacing in-person qualitative with on-line approaches, and working from home. So far this has kept our staff and our clients free of the disease and allowed us to tirelessly meet our clients’ rapidly evolving needs and deadlines.
I’ve also been impressed by the way our clients have reacted from a business standpoint. With all the scary news and panic buying, it is impressive that our clients have reacted to the crisis seriously and thoughtfully. While it might seem insensitive to talk about business issues in a crisis like this, the reality is that we need a thriving economy for the well-being of everyone.
Every recession is different and this one is perhaps the most different of all. It came on more suddenly and was driven not by economic factors like inflation, commodity prices or financial institutions collapsing. With that said, such downturns are not unprecedented. They are referred to as “event driven” recessions. Unlike normal recessions, the event driven variety tend to be short lived with fast recoveries. According to the Goldman Sachs article the stock market typically takes just 15 months to fully recover from an event driven recession as compared to over 100 months for a structural one (such as the financial crisis of 2008). It is important to understand that while it takes 15 months to get back to where the market was pre-bear market, the recovery starts much earlier than that; it might have already started.
Simply put, even as the crisis grows you need to plan for the upsurge to come. In the short term, you need to understand what consumers are thinking and when that thinking will change. Most critically, you need to understand how to connect and the tone your audience will accept from you so you don’t alienate them. Longer term you need to understand how this recession will change behavior. We do so many discrete choice conjoint studies that I tend to think in terms of “features”…so what product and service features will change forever due to behavioral changes? For example, more on-line usage is a no-brainer given the success of this extensive national experiment in remote working....